Throughout the 1980’s Phil Collins music could be heard playing on the Weekly Top 40’s Hits whenever he produced an album. Admittedly, when I first arrived in the United States in 1982, I fell in love with his song called ‘You Can’t Hurry Love’. Unbeknownst to this six-year-old at the time when I saw the video to this song I actually believed they were triplets, don’t laugh because you probably thought the same :). His discography is comprised of a nice blend of soft, uptempo, emotional, and energetic songs. Songs such as ‘Easy Lover’, ‘Another Day in Paradise’, ‘Take a look at me now’ (One of my favorites), ‘Sussudio’, ‘One more night’, and ‘In the air tonight’.

Today on a respected mainstream news outlet beginning with first letter after B and ending with letter N noted that the stock market today is in it’s third longest Bull Market, which began in 2009 (Sofeé). We are not experiencing a Bull Market, but rather a Bubble. In both a Bubble and Bull Market respectively the price is advancing higher. However, a Bubble is when stock prices are rising not based on fundamentals. Whereas, a Secular Bull Market a.k.a Bull Market the prices of stocks are rising based on fundamentals. Here is an investment secret “Shhh. Be vewy vewy quiet” (Elmer Fudd). A Secular Bull Market can have a Bear Cycle. Bear meaning opposite of a Bull and a Cycle is a period within a Market. A Bear Cycle during a Secular Bull Market is important to note because this is when investors usually allow emotion to override their conviction and empirical evidence and sell. Selling during a Bear Cycle in a Secular Bull Market is not a fiscally prudent decision.

When a Bear Market occurs during a Secular Bull Market a contrarian investor will exclaim: Eureka! ! !  The Financial Gods are presenting thee with a gift, thou should not slumber, but feast I say, and increase thy capital goods consumption.  Like momma used to say: “Milk and honey show feels good in yo tummy, now invest and make that money”. Yes, she was actually referring to currency, not money. I get it, glad you did too.

I truly pride myself as a contrarian investor, which presents me with a precarious aura: “I can feel it coming in the air . . . “.   that I have regarding the current Bubble, not to be confused with a Secular Bull. Yes, I purposely omitted (tonight). Glad you caught my omission. However, I would be providing a false narrative if I stated “tonight” when I have had this suspicion for the past five years.

Okay, I stated that we are in a Bubble and now I have to validate my position.  There should be no disagreement that the Economy since 2009 has been in dire straights. Caution:  I am not an economist, I just have common and at times good sense. Let us being, shall we? I would agree we are in a Bull Market under the following: If unemployment were let’s say at 2%, if the Federal Reserve didn’t artificially keep rates at 0%, if household debt was being reduced by 4% over the past 15 years leaving investors discretionary funds to speculate (Sofeé) in the Market. Most investors don’t speculate they actually gamble. To discern the difference, I would recommend that you subscribe to ‘Sprott’ s Thoughts’ on sprottglobal.com, as well as http://sprottglobal.com/natural-resource-investing/investment-university/mining-investment-college-video-1/. If you are a member of the Liberty.me community you have exclusive access to Rick Rule’s treatise ‘Shark Tank’, which is a masterpiece!  Jam right I said it, a masterpiece!

So, if investors don’t have discretionary funds to invest where is the Market getting all this capital? Many investors have fled their banks because the banks aren’t as dependent on depositors because they were bailed out and are being charged around 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, banks can employ fractional reserve lending without the arbitrage of depositors. But just you wait and see, when (hold your laugh) the Federal Reserve increases rates then the banks will provide loans with a generous delta of 5% or greater. Did you hear that?  It’s the guitar from the intro:”I can feel it coming in the air . . .”, in this scenario the velocity of currency will create a duplicitous effect on our currency leading to other factors such as riots, violence, finger pointing, victimization, oh the vices of society will be in full effect.

Alas, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I have viewed these past 7 years an amazing opportunity to expand my intellectual capacity and step into the investment arena with courage and conviction. If you have never invested, specifically in precious metals, now is a great time. We are experiencing a Bear Cycle in a Bull Market. If you’re looking to purchase bullion from a coin dealer you can type in your zip code, coin dealer. The last five years I have given my bullion business to lowcountrycoins.com ask for Jason or Bill. You don’t need to tell them I sent you because they will take care of you regardless. Jason and Bill have earned my respect and trust time and time again through their merit and honesty. They mail for free if you reside within the 48.

If you don’t have exposure to the Natural Resources in your portfolio take this opportunity to add to your positions. My personal favorites are silver, platinum, palladium, uranium, and water. If you elect to use a discount broker, I caution you, don’t inquire about Natural Resource investing. I can save you some time, they don’t have the expertise. They are generalists. Your portfolio deserves specialists and I endorse sprottglobal.com. All of the analyst at ‘Sprott’ are astute experts in Natural Resource investing. I’m proud to say Tekoa Da Silva is my broker.

I challenge you to become a generational steward. If you haven’t begun this endeavor your consideration should be paramount today for the task. If you are discouraged that you are not in the position to invest I implore you to read ‘The Richest Man In Babylon’ by George S. Clason. Invest in your mind first, formulate your plan, then act (hurry), before the Bubble pops because ‘I can feel it coming in the air . . . ‘.  Can you?

Sofeé

sofee.mj@gmail.com

 

The featured image was by: Steve